Nobody can tell you which category will win next year. What the numbers can tell you is which ones look cheap or expensive against their own past, which are rising or falling, and which are calm or jumpy. Put together, that tells you which way to lean.
Weekly closing price, price to book and price to earnings for seven equity categories, from the NSE's own archive. Roughly 550 weeks per category, back to 2016 where it exists.
Is it cheap against its own past? Is it rising? Is it calm? Each answer becomes a number out of 100, by ranking today against every week that came before.
Cheap counts 40%, rising 35%, calm 25%. Those are a starting point, not a truth. Change them below and every number on this page moves.
We replayed the score every week since 2018 using only what was knowable at the time. It helped over the following year. Over three years it made no difference at all. Both results are below, unedited.
What the score is not: it is not a forecast, and it is not about any particular fund. It ranks seven market indices against their own history. A high score means a category looks cheap, or strong, or calm compared with how it has usually looked, and nothing more than that.
Tilting means a little more or a little less than your usual share. It never means putting everything in the top category or selling everything in the bottom one.
We replayed the model every week since 2018, using only the data that existed that week. So it never got to peek at the future.
Compares today's price to book and price to earnings with every week since 2016. Lower than usual scores higher. It also checks how much more mid and small caps cost than large caps. When that gap is wider than usual, the smaller categories lose points and large caps gain them.
Half the points come from one question: is the index above its average price of the last 40 weeks, roughly 200 trading days? The other half come from how its 6 and 12 month returns compare with the whole market, the Nifty 500.
How much the index has swung up and down over the last 6 months, against its own past. Plus India VIX, the market's fear gauge, which is at today. Calmer than usual scores higher.
Your split between large, mid and small caps should come from your goals and how long you can wait. This page only nudges that split a little.
The cheapest way to tilt is to point fresh SIPs or lump sums towards the favoured category. Selling to switch costs you tax and sometimes an exit load, which eats most of the small edge shown above.
The ranking moves slowly. Looking at it every week will tempt you to act on noise. Once a quarter is plenty.
